Which way, left or right?
Undoubtable, China-US relation is important. To those once vibrant asian tigers, its importance is much amplified in the present gloomy global economy. Bunch of scenarios have been proposed for the future development of the relationship between China and America. However, maybe we should not take these scenarios as answers but a map.
What does a map offers us? Find a route to the end, many say. This is correct indeed. But a map also tells us what we will see or experience in different routes. This information may be even more important when we do not know the end.
This is exactly the situation now. We do not really know what kind of relationship China and America will finally have. It is hard to predict. People change; people want different things; people make different decisions. The end is therefore a dynamic one and, probably, there wont be an end. But remember, a map tells us not only how to achieve the end, but also what happen on the way. Therefore, if we have a situation like this: don't know where to go but must go, maybe it is better to be aware of what will happen.
This is even more important to those asian tigers for they have no or only little impact on those decision makers in Beijing and Washington. So, how to deal with this? Well, map is there. The more scenarios are collected, the clearer the map is. And to know what may happen, one should know which direction that China and America will take.
Hillary Clinton's asian trip is a sign: a sign showing which point China and America weight more. China's political reform and human right? Global warming and environmental issues? If it is the former been addressed more, China and America may have a better relation in the long run and simultaneously solve the environmental problems. If it is the latter dominating the dialogue, then non of them can stop protectionism and global environment is actually threatened.
Undoubtable, China-US relation is important. To those once vibrant asian tigers, its importance is much amplified in the present gloomy global economy. Bunch of scenarios have been proposed for the future development of the relationship between China and America. However, maybe we should not take these scenarios as answers but a map.
What does a map offers us? Find a route to the end, many say. This is correct indeed. But a map also tells us what we will see or experience in different routes. This information may be even more important when we do not know the end.
This is exactly the situation now. We do not really know what kind of relationship China and America will finally have. It is hard to predict. People change; people want different things; people make different decisions. The end is therefore a dynamic one and, probably, there wont be an end. But remember, a map tells us not only how to achieve the end, but also what happen on the way. Therefore, if we have a situation like this: don't know where to go but must go, maybe it is better to be aware of what will happen.
This is even more important to those asian tigers for they have no or only little impact on those decision makers in Beijing and Washington. So, how to deal with this? Well, map is there. The more scenarios are collected, the clearer the map is. And to know what may happen, one should know which direction that China and America will take.
Hillary Clinton's asian trip is a sign: a sign showing which point China and America weight more. China's political reform and human right? Global warming and environmental issues? If it is the former been addressed more, China and America may have a better relation in the long run and simultaneously solve the environmental problems. If it is the latter dominating the dialogue, then non of them can stop protectionism and global environment is actually threatened.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/20/AR2009022000967.html?
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obviously, human right will not show up in Clinton's trip in China. If so, then Obama administration can
relax the effort to stop protectionism at home and distance White house from further global economy
meltdown amplified by protectionism.
However, this management indeed protects America's interests the best. For most of the China-US
cooperations, it is China paying the bill, not America. Therefore, even the global economy may be
worse off, a situation like this would be better for US than those without China. But for rest of world,
this is not a good news. Because this time, it is not that America shops the world, it is America pockets
money from the world.
If anyone asks why China "has to" give money away, why China cannot say NO to America? This is
totally political.
Somehow The Economist does share my idea partially.
回覆刪除The Economist
(printed edition, March 21st 2009, http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13326106)
"or Mr Obama, this means pulling off a difficult balancing act. In the longer term, if he has not managed to seduce China (and for that matter India and Brazil) more firmly into the liberal multilateral system by the time he leaves office, then historians may judge him a failure. In the short term he needs to hold China to its promises and to scold it for its lapses: Mrs Clinton should have taken it to task over Tibet and human rights when she was there. The Bush administration made much of the idea of welcoming China as a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system. The G20 is a chance to give China a bigger stake in global decision-making than was available in the small clubs of the G7 and G8. But it is also a chance for China to show it can exercise its new influence responsibly."